The popularity of fantasy football only exacerbates the problem. All the yards in the world won’t help a team win if they all come in six-yard chunks on third-and-10. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance. Now, why would they do that? Football has one objective - to get to the end zone - and two ways to achieve that - by gaining yards and achieving first downs. The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. What is the down and distance? Is it third-and-2 or second-and-15? Where on the field is the ball? Does the player get only three yards because he hits the goal line and scores? Is the player’s team up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and thus running out the clock or down by two touchdowns, and thus facing a defense that is playing purely against the pass? Is the running back playing against the porous defense of the Raiders, or the stalwart defense of the Bears?Ĭonventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on their net yardage. Several factors can differentiate one three-yard run from another. In fact, this question is at the heart of nearly all of the analysis on Football Outsiders. Which is the better run? This sounds like a stupid question, but it isn’t. Another running back runs for three yards. For more detail, read below.ĭVOA EXPLAINED | ABOUT DVOA v7.3 | DYAR EXPLAINED | SPECIAL TEAMS STATS | ADJUSTED LINE YARDS and other offensive/defensive line stats | DRIVE STATS
Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays.
DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12.
It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. THE SHORT VERSION:ĭVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
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